Mid-Week Fixture: Champions League Predictions

Today’s 3-0 Champions League wins for Barcelona and Arsenal over their top group rivals, Lyon and Sevilla, respectively, demonstrate the collective power of these two teams. In fact, it’s not a stretch to say that these two could be the last two standings next May when the championship game is contested in Moscow.

What you might not be expecting me to say is that I think Arsenal has a better chance of winning, and will win, the Champions League, than their Spanish rivals.

We all know about Barcelona’s star-power, but Arsenal’s more of an unknown quantity, despite currently sitting at the top of the Premier League standings. Facing an unknown is a dangerous proposition in the Champions League, a collection of teams that know everybody else inside-out. One just has to look at the Porto-Monaco final from 2004 or Liverpool’s triumph a year later to see that the Champions League, despite its glamorous façade, is still a competition that isn’t always kind to the teams you'd expect to win — just ask Roman Abramovich.

Arsene Wenger recently signed a contract extension that settles his situation and keeps him at Arsenal until 2011. He mentioned that he did it for the young players at the club, but his intentions weren’t entirely out of sympathy – those young players are very good. So good, in fact, they are surprising even the most optimistic Gunners fan by looking like they will contend this season, not in two or three years. I’ll take it one step further, and I’m not the only one, and say they can win this year’s Champions League.

By selling Thierry Henry to Barcelona, it appeared as if Arsenal was giving up on their claim of being one of Europe’s great clubs and starting from scratch. Instead, they gave Barça a spectacular, but injury-prone, attacking player to a team that already has three of them. The results so far haven’t been spectacular, as Barça’s high-powered offense has two 0-0 draws on the road against middling teams, the kind of results that gifted the title to Real Madrid last season. The team’s best and most in-form player, Lionel Messi, is also the least egotistical of its attacking quartet, and often makes way for the clubs more ornery players, Henry, Ronaldinho and Samuel Eto’o. Neither of those three have hit their stride yet this season, and their video-game offense is known to backfire.

Its most consistent player up front last year and the guy that does the small stuff for his better-known teammates, Eidur Gudjohnsen, is practically on vacation on the Barça bench until he’s sold somewhere else. Worse yet, their defending last season was abysmal in all competitions; the addition of Gabriel Milito and Éric Abidal will help, but this is still a team that has the mistake-prone Rafa Marquez and Carlos Puyol and the aging Lilian Thuram at the back, not to mention a shaky keeper in Victor Valdés. For all their attacking prowess, the rearguard was the reason why they lost to Liverpool in last year’s second round.

Arsenal, meanwhile, ridded itself of its dependence on Henry, which they got a taste of for most of last season. While the club will certainly be asking a lot of its forwards, the talented but relatively untested Robin Van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, Eduardo da Silva and Theo Walcott, they will get support from everywhere in Arsene Wenger’s system. The midfield, in particular, has pound-for-pound the best balance of bite and skill in Europe, led by the incomparable Cesc Fabregas. Had Barcelona been paying better attention a few years back, Cesc would be exactly the player they need now – a box-to-box player with great instincts and a nose for goal.

Defensively, Arsenal could do better than have the error-prone Jens Lehmann in goal, but the backbone of Kolo Toure and William Gallas, with Gilberto Silva protecting them from midfield, is athletic and aware enough to handle anybody. Perhaps Arsenal’s biggest weakness is themselves — too often, they are criticized for searching for the perfect goal instead of being selfish. The draw here can help them if they avoid an Italian team that could easily stifle their free-flowing style of football, but with that human highlight-reel Thierry Henry gone, I think the current crop of Gunners will be less likely to play to the fans and instead go for the victory.

Final Four Predictions: Arsenal (winners), Barcelona (runners-up), Liverpool, Milan